LONDON  —Russia's repeated missile and drone attacks on crucial Ukrainian ports, vital for global grain shipments, have raised concerns about shipping safety in the Black Sea. Moscow's declaration of large areas in the Black Sea as dangerous for shipping has even prompted warnings from the United States, acknowledging the risk of vessels being targeted.

Despite the dangers and the destruction of grain infrastructure from port attacks, there remains some interest from ship owners in transporting Ukrainian grain through the Black Sea.

However, mitigating the risks poses significant challenges.

John Stawpert, Senior Manager of Environment and Trade at the International Chamber of Shipping, representing 80% of the world's commercial fleet, highlights that the shipping industry has historically shown resilience in the face of such risks.

Nevertheless, the ongoing situation calls for careful navigation and heightened vigilance to ensure safe grain transport in the region.

This week's strikes targeting Ukrainian ports come in the aftermath of Russia's withdrawal from a wartime accord brokered by the U.N. and Turkey last year.

The accord aimed to safeguard shipping companies and address a global food crisis. Ukraine, a significant supplier of wheat, barley, and vegetable oil to developing nations, plays a crucial role in global food security. So far this year, Ukraine has shipped 32.9 million metric tons of grain to the world and provided 80% of the World Food Program's wheat for humanitarian aid.

Following the collapse of the grain deal, Ukraine established its own temporary shipping corridor, assuring compensation for any damages incurred during transit.

However, Russia issued a warning, claiming that ships passing through certain Black Sea areas would be perceived as carrying weapons to Ukraine. In response, Ukraine declared vessels heading to Russian Black Sea ports as potentially carrying military cargo with associated risks.

Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Vershinin mentioned that their navy would inspect vessels to verify they aren't carrying weapons before taking further action. The continuation of grain shipments from Ukraine will depend on insurance coverage for potential damage, injuries, and loss of crew members, considering the safety risks.

Vessels exporting Ukrainian grain are high-value assets, worth tens of millions of dollars, and carry food also valued at tens of millions. With piracy, terrorism, and war zones becoming significant concerns, all ships undergo threat assessments to ensure crew safety before setting sail.

The risks for ships navigating the Black Sea are multifaceted and pose significant challenges to their safety. These risks include the potential threat of explosive mines, becoming collateral damage at ports, or being deliberately targeted, which John Stawpert, senior manager of environment and trade for the International Chamber of Shipping, describes as a "huge escalation."

The uncertainty surrounding the seriousness of these threats and whether they will be acted upon makes it challenging for shipowners to make informed decisions. Stawpert acknowledges that insurers have not yet provided a clear response to the situation.

In light of Russia's warnings, the International Union of Marine Insurance, representing national and international marine insurers, believes that underwriters are unlikely to cover the risks involved. Shipowners may be hesitant to put their vessels and crews in harm's way without adequate protections like those previously offered under the grain deal.

Munro Anderson, head of operations for Vessel Protect, a company that assesses war risks at sea and provides insurance with backing from Lloyd's, shares a similar sentiment. While he doesn't explicitly state whether underwriters like his company would take on the risk, he emphasizes that without proper protections, safety conditions cannot be guaranteed.

The International Group of P&I Clubs, consisting of 12 providers, emerges as a potential solution to mitigate these risks through insurance coverage. This group offers liability coverage for approximately 90% of the world's cargo shipped by sea, offering shipowners a way to safeguard against potential hazards while navigating the volatile Black Sea.

The uncertainty surrounding insurance coverage for ships navigating the Black Sea remains a significant concern. P&I clubs, which provide liability coverage for cargo shipped by sea, may be hesitant to insure vessels without a guarantee from the U.N. or another authoritative body.

The International Group of P&I Clubs' CEO, who could provide more insight, is currently on vacation, and individual clubs have either declined to comment or not responded to inquiries.

The head of the seafarers division of the International Transport Workers' Federation, representing crew members, highlights the primary concern of seafarers' safety amidst the ongoing conflict. Rather than focusing on insurance, their main worry is the risk to their lives while carrying out their duties.

In response to the escalating risks in the Black Sea, some analysts anticipate that Ukraine will opt for alternative transportation methods, such as road, rail, and river routes through Europe.

While this may allow some grain to be exported, the higher transportation costs are likely to lead to reduced production by Ukrainian farmers.

Despite efforts to improve alternative routes, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba emphasizes that the best and most efficient way to export grain remains through the Black Sea, which previously accounted for 75% of the country's grain exports before the war.

The European Union faces internal divisions as five member countries - Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, Romania, and Bulgaria - intend to extend a ban on Ukrainian grain imports until the end of the year. While these countries allow Ukrainian grain to pass through their borders for international markets, the ban could lead to infrastructure challenges and prioritize local grain over Ukraine's products. Carlos Mera from Rabobank highlights the potential negative impact on Ukraine's export opportunities.

The decision to extend the ban comes as these countries have experienced an influx of Ukrainian grain flooding their markets, resulting in a surplus that drives down prices for their own farmers and triggers protests. Ahead of EU talks, they are urging for solutions that facilitate Ukrainian food exports without harming their agricultural industries.

This development poses a significant hurdle for Ukraine's grain exports and may further exacerbate hunger issues in developing countries already grappling with high local food prices.

Wheat prices have surged by approximately 17% in the last week, leading to increased costs for staple foods like bread and pasta in poorer nations. The rising prices worsen food insecurity for millions of people facing economic challenges.