On Friday, the United States announced a pivotal agreement with the Iraqi government, signaling the end of the American-led military coalition's mission in Iraq by next year. This move marks the latest chapter in a two-decade-long U.S. military presence in the country, though specific details regarding the number of U.S. troops that will remain after the drawdown remain unclear.

According to Pentagon officials, a "changing footprint" in Iraq is anticipated, but no full withdrawal was confirmed. The announcement comes amidst escalating regional tensions, with heightened conflict between Israel, Hezbollah, and Hamas, alongside increasing attacks on U.S. bases by Iran-backed militias.

The transition will occur in two phases. The first, running through September 2025, will see coalition forces leaving several long-held bases, including Ain al-Asad airbase and Baghdad International Airport, with troops relocating to Hareer base in Iraq’s Kurdistan region. During the second phase, U.S. forces will continue limited operations until 2026 to support counter-ISIS missions in neighboring Syria.

Despite U.S. troop reductions, Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed al-Sudani expressed confidence in his nation’s ability to defeat remaining ISIS forces. However, security experts warn that ongoing ISIS activity in Syria raises concerns about the implications of the drawdown.

While this agreement ends the current mission, questions remain regarding the future of U.S. forces in Iraq. Tensions persist as Iran-backed militias continue to call for the full withdrawal of international coalition forces, presenting challenges for Iraq's delicate balancing act between U.S. and Iranian interests.