As President-elect Donald Trump prepares to assume office, experts suggest his invitation to Chinese leader Xi Jinping to attend the January 20 inauguration is unlikely to be accepted, signaling the complexities of U.S.-China relations under the incoming administration.
Trump’s press secretary, Karoline Leavitt, confirmed on Thursday that the invitation had been extended, though the Chinese Embassy in Washington declined to comment. Analysts, however, doubt Xi will make the trip, citing significant political risks and a lack of precedent for such an event.
Danny Russel, a former assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific affairs, explained the impracticality of Xi’s attendance. "Can you imagine Xi Jinping sitting outdoors in Washington, D.C., in January, surrounded by hawkish members of Congress, and gazing up at Donald Trump as he delivers his inaugural address?” Russel questioned. He emphasized that Xi would not risk being perceived as celebrating the victory of a foreign leader, particularly one poised to intensify economic and political challenges for China.
Yun Sun, director of the China program at the Stimson Center, echoed Russel’s sentiment, highlighting Beijing’s preference for caution when protocol and precedent are unclear. Sun noted the potential diplomatic sensitivities surrounding the guest list, recalling Taiwan’s top diplomat’s attendance at President Joe Biden’s 2021 inauguration.
Further complicating matters, Trump’s campaign rhetoric has been sharply critical of China, with threats of imposing tariffs as high as 60% on Chinese goods. "Should Trump act on such threats, Xi’s presence at the inauguration would be viewed as a diplomatic misstep, which Beijing would not tolerate," Sun stated.
Experts anticipate that a Trump administration will escalate tensions between the two nations. Trump has selected several outspoken China hawks for key roles, including Senator Marco Rubio as Secretary of State and Representative Mike Waltz as National Security Adviser.
Beijing, adopting a cautious “wait-and-see” approach, is preparing for potential retaliatory measures should Trump impose tariffs or introduce other hostile policies. Sun remarked, “For Trump, there’s no contradiction between carrot and stick. For China, that’s a contradiction, reinforcing its inclination to play it safe and avoid being manipulated.”
While Xi is unlikely to attend the inauguration, planning for a future meeting between the two leaders is expected. Analysts suggest Beijing might prefer direct negotiations with Trump, hoping to secure a favorable deal despite the adversarial tone of his policies.
Trump’s 2017 visit to China demonstrated his capacity for diplomacy, but experts warn against interpreting his outreach as a sign of leniency. "He played nice then, but the following year launched a trade war," Sun said, emphasizing the unpredictability that will likely define the next chapter of U.S.-China relations.