India Sends a Hydro Warning: Temporary Water Blockade to Pakistan Amid Soaring Tensions

India Sends a Hydro Warning: Temporary Water Blockade to Pakistan Amid Soaring Tensions

In a powerful symbolic gesture following the horrific Pahalgam terror attack, India has momentarily halted the flow of water through the Baglihar Dam on the Chenab River—part of a broader review of its commitments under the Indus Waters Treaty. Reports suggest similar measures are being weighed for the Kishanganga project near Bandipore, signaling a hardening stance by New Delhi.

Though the blockade is short-term—owing to the Baglihar Dam’s limited storage capacity in line with treaty provisions—it comes loaded with political weight. The Chenab is one of the “western rivers” whose flow Pakistan is guaranteed under the 1960 treaty. India, however, retains rights for non-consumptive uses like hydroelectric generation and irrigation.

Located in Jammu and Kashmir's Ramban district, the Baglihar project is a run-of-the-river hydroelectric plant generating 900 MW. It doesn't store significant volumes of water, meaning the stoppage is inherently constrained by design. The Kishanganga project in Gurez, also run-of-the-river, produces 330 MW and has long been a bone of contention between the two nations.

Pakistan has repeatedly challenged both dams, alleging that their specifications grant India an upper hand during times of conflict. While it took the Baglihar issue to the World Bank, an appointed neutral expert dismissed Islamabad’s primary concerns—particularly those about dam height and spillway control. A similar arbitration over Kishanganga also ended in India’s favour, permitting limited inter-tributary water diversion.

Despite the legality of these projects, the timing of India's latest move—post-Pahalgam attack—makes it unmistakably clear: water may now be wielded as a strategic lever. India has not violated the treaty, but the action carries a sharp undertone of retribution.

Pakistan has previously warned that any obstruction of water flow would amount to an act of war, threatening to nullify bilateral frameworks like the Simla Agreement. The stakes are high as the bilateral relationship continues to deteriorate following the attack that claimed the lives of 25 tourists and a local Kashmiri.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi, voicing the nation's fury, declared that the assault was not just on individuals but on India’s soul. He vowed that the perpetrators and their backers—widely believed to be operating with Pakistan's support—would face unimaginable consequences.

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