Addis Ababa: Ethiopia is preparing to inaugurate the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) on September 9, marking the culmination of a 14-year project that Addis Ababa hails as a historic leap for its energy sector, but one that continues to raise alarm in Egypt and Sudan over water security.
Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed announced in July that the GERD was complete and ready for full operation. Positioned on the Blue Nile, the massive hydropower project is Africa’s largest, designed to generate more than 5,000 megawatts of electricity. The first turbines came online in 2022, and officials say the dam will not only meet domestic energy demand but also supply power to neighboring countries, boosting Ethiopia’s role as a regional energy hub.
Ethiopia has emphasized that the reservoir, with a capacity of up to 74 billion cubic meters, will help regulate river flow and reduce flooding, insisting that downstream nations will not be harmed. The government has defended the staged filling and operation as both lawful and essential for national development.
Egypt and Sudan, however, have stepped up their opposition in the run-up to the inauguration. Both countries accuse Ethiopia of acting unilaterally and argue that a binding agreement between the three nations is essential before the dam operates fully. They maintain that Ethiopia’s control of the Blue Nile poses a direct threat to their water security, with Egypt in particular dependent on the Nile for nearly all of its freshwater needs.
Diplomatic efforts over the past decade, including rounds of talks under African Union and U.S. mediation, have failed to produce a binding treaty governing drought-year operations, data sharing, and dispute resolution. The United Nations Security Council urged the parties to resume negotiations in 2021, but progress has remained limited.
Satellite monitoring shows that Ethiopia steadily completed the dam’s filling phases by 2024, effectively cementing its control over the project. Analysts say the physical completion of the dam has shifted the balance, leaving Cairo and Khartoum struggling to counter a fait accompli.
Recent reports of unusually low Blue Nile levels downstream have heightened tensions, with Sudanese authorities partly blaming the dam’s reservoir management. Ethiopia has dismissed such claims as exaggerated and unsupported by scientific data.
As the inauguration approaches, Ethiopia is expected to showcase new turbines and expanded grid capacity. Meanwhile, Egypt and Sudan continue to push for an enforceable operations agreement. Whether the upcoming ceremony sparks renewed negotiations or deepens the divide will determine if the GERD becomes a symbol of regional cooperation or a lasting flashpoint on the Nile.