Tokyo: A recent Kyodo News survey has revealed a stark divide among Japanese citizens regarding how the nation should respond if China launches a military assault on Taiwan. The poll indicates that 48.8% of respondents support exercising Japan’s right to collective self-defense under such circumstances, while 44.2% oppose military involvement.
The survey also highlights growing public backing for Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s defense policy. Approximately 60.4% of participants expressed support for Japan’s plans to accelerate defense spending, aiming to reach 2% of GDP sooner than initially projected. The findings underscore a society wrestling with the balance between strategic necessity and cautious restraint.
The poll comes against a backdrop of heightened tensions between Tokyo and Beijing. On November 7, Prime Minister Takaichi warned the Japanese Parliament that a Chinese attack on Taiwan could constitute a “survival-threatening situation” for Japan. Her remarks suggested that Japan might be compelled to take military action in support of Taiwan if the situation escalates.
Beijing reacted sharply, condemning Takaichi’s comments and issuing travel advisories for Chinese citizens visiting Japan. Analysts view these developments as indicative of the fragile state of Sino-Japanese relations, where public statements and defense policy shifts carry the potential to inflame geopolitical sensitivities.
The near-even split among Japanese citizens reflects deep-rooted ambivalence toward military engagement. Supporters of collective self-defense argue that Taiwan’s security is intrinsically linked to Japan’s own safety, citing geographic proximity and regional security imperatives. They warn that a Chinese takeover of Taiwan could directly threaten Japanese territory or economic interests.
Conversely, opponents of military action fear the human, economic, and diplomatic costs of entanglement. Many remain wary of Japan being drawn into a conflict with China, preferring diplomatic solutions and caution over active military involvement. This ongoing debate illustrates a society balancing historical caution with modern strategic realities.
The survey shows that a significant majority of the population supports increasing Japan’s defense budget, reflecting growing anxiety over China’s expanding military capabilities. The government’s plan to reach 2% of GDP in defense expenditure ahead of schedule is seen as a proactive measure to strengthen deterrence and ensure national security.
Experts suggest that Japan’s accelerated defense initiatives, coupled with potential military cooperation with allies, signal a shift in long-standing policy toward strategic ambiguity. Tokyo appears increasingly willing to take assertive steps to protect national and regional security interests.
The poll also indicates a rise in Prime Minister Takaichi’s political standing, with her cabinet approval rating climbing to 69.9%, up by 5.5 points from the previous month. This boost in public confidence may provide her the leverage needed to implement defense reforms, though such moves could further strain relations with Beijing.
Regional and Global Implications
• China has voiced strong disapproval over Japan’s potential military intervention in Taiwan, warning against any actions that might destabilize the region.
• Taiwan remains central to this debate, serving as a strategic buffer for Japan and a focal point of regional security concerns.
• Global observers note that Japan’s evolving public sentiment and defense posture could influence broader Indo-Pacific security dynamics, especially in coordination with allies wary of China’s ambitions.
Japan faces a complex strategic choice. Public opinion is divided, yet leaning toward heightened preparedness. Policymakers must navigate the twin pressures of growing security threats and societal caution, determining whether Tokyo will maintain its traditional restraint or embrace a more assertive regional security role.
As Sino-Japanese tensions continue to simmer, the coming months are likely to be critical in shaping Japan’s defense strategy and its stance on Taiwan.