London: Global oil markets remained on edge Thursday as Ukrainian military strikes targeted Russian oil infrastructure, while stalled peace negotiations between the United States and Russia intensified uncertainty over future crude supplies. Traders reacted cautiously, with prices edging higher amid concerns that repeated attacks and prolonged sanctions could constrain flows of Russian oil to international markets.
The latest Ukrainian assault struck the Druzhba pipeline in Russia’s Tambov region, a key conduit supplying crude to Central and Eastern Europe, including Hungary and Slovakia. While pipeline operators later confirmed that flows were restored to normal, analysts warned that recurring attacks on Russia’s refining and transport infrastructure have steadily eroded capacity. Research firm Kpler reported that Russian refining throughput dropped by approximately 335,000 barrels per day from September through November compared to the same period in 2024, signaling the cumulative impact of targeted strikes.
Patricia Chen, an energy analyst, commented, “Even temporary disruptions amplify market anxieties because they highlight vulnerabilities in Russian supply chains that were assumed stable before the conflict escalated.”
Brent crude futures rose by 24 cents, or 0.38%, to $62.91 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) advanced by 29 cents, or 0.49%, to $59.24 per barrel in early trading. The gains reflect geopolitical risk rather than a fundamental change in supply-demand balances, with weak global demand and oversupply concerns continuing to weigh on prices. Fitch Ratings recently revised its forecast downward for oil prices through 2027, suggesting that, absent major disruptions, prices are likely to remain in a narrow trading range.
Adding to market unease, talks between Washington and Moscow on potential easing of sanctions remain at an impasse. Without progress toward an agreement, the prospect of Russian oil returning in greater volumes to global markets appears distant. Traders have cited this stalemate as a major factor sustaining price support, alongside ongoing Ukrainian operations that threaten to temporarily reduce crude exports.
“The market is nervous,” said one European trader. “Each new report of a pipeline strike or stalled negotiation reinforces the perception that Russian supply will remain constrained for the foreseeable future.”
The combination of military disruptions and diplomatic deadlock has introduced a high level of uncertainty into global oil supply forecasts. Analysts note that any further attacks on infrastructure, coupled with continued sanctions, could tighten markets and trigger sharper price movements. Conversely, if pipelines operate uninterrupted and negotiations eventually progress, the market could stabilize, though analysts warn that volatility is likely to persist as long as the conflict and sanctions remain unresolved.
In the short term, investors and policymakers will continue monitoring pipeline operations, regional security developments, and international negotiations, all of which remain key determinants of global energy stability.