London: The OPEC+ oil-producing alliance is set to maintain its planned pause on increasing oil production through March 2026, even as global crude prices register a noticeable jump, according to sources familiar with the discussions. The expected decision reflects the group’s careful balancing act between supporting prices and avoiding an oversupply in a market still facing economic and geopolitical uncertainties.
Sources indicated that the decision is likely to be endorsed at an upcoming OPEC+ meeting, reinforcing an agreement reached earlier to temporarily halt output increases at the start of 2026. The alliance, which includes major producers such as Saudi Arabia, Russia, the UAE, Iraq and Kuwait, had gradually raised production by around 2.9 million barrels per day between April and December 2025, before opting for a pause due to weaker seasonal demand and fragile global growth signals.
Oil prices, meanwhile, have climbed to multi-month highs, with Brent crude trading close to levels last seen in mid-2025. The recent surge has been driven by geopolitical tensions, supply disruptions and renewed concerns over Middle East stability, all of which have injected a fresh risk premium into energy markets. These developments have strengthened prices but have not been sufficient to prompt OPEC+ into accelerating production.
Market participants say the alliance remains wary of adding new supply too quickly, particularly as global demand growth remains uneven across regions. Slower economic momentum in parts of Europe and China, combined with tight financial conditions in advanced economies, has made producers cautious about flooding the market with additional barrels.
Another factor influencing the decision is ongoing supply volatility in certain producer countries. Disruptions linked to infrastructure issues and maintenance work in parts of Central Asia, along with lingering geopolitical risks involving Iran and major shipping routes, have contributed to market instability. OPEC+ appears keen to avoid policy moves that could amplify volatility.
The Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC), which oversees compliance with production targets, is also expected to meet alongside the main gathering. While the committee does not set policy, it will review market conditions and adherence to existing agreements. Sources suggest no major changes beyond March are likely to be announced at this stage.
Analysts interpret the likely extension of the output pause as a signal that OPEC+ remains focused on price stability and long-term market management, rather than short-term gains. By holding production steady, the group aims to preserve a fragile balance between supply and demand while retaining flexibility to respond if economic or geopolitical conditions shift.
With oil markets remaining sensitive to global developments, OPEC+’s decision for March will be closely watched by governments, investors and consumers alike, as it sets the tone for energy markets in the early months of 2026.