New Delhi: India’s wheat production for 2026 is expected to fall short of the government’s record estimate, raising concerns over the impact of changing weather patterns on agriculture.
According to the Roller Flour Millers’ Federation of India, wheat output is likely to reach about 110.65 million metric tons this year. This is lower than the government’s earlier projection of 120.21 million tons, which had raised hopes of a record harvest.
The estimate shows only a small increase from last year’s output of around 109.63 million tons, indicating that growth in production has remained limited.
Industry experts and traders say the main reason for the lower output is unseasonal weather. Rain and hailstorms in key growing regions damaged crops just before harvest, reducing yields and affecting quality. Some market participants believe the final output could be even lower, possibly close to 106 million tons.
Despite the drop, there is no immediate concern about shortages. India currently holds large wheat stocks, well above the required buffer level. This is expected to keep domestic supply stable and prevent any sharp rise in prices.
The government has also stepped up procurement efforts to strengthen reserves. It has increased its wheat buying target as more farmers are expected to sell to state agencies due to assured prices under the minimum support price system.
Officials remain hopeful that strong procurement and existing stock levels will help manage supply in the coming months. However, the gap between official projections and market estimates highlights the growing uncertainty caused by unpredictable weather conditions.
India is one of the world’s largest wheat producers, but recent trends show that climate related disruptions are becoming a key challenge for the sector.