New Delhi: Gold prices continued their record-breaking rally on Tuesday, climbing to unprecedented levels in global and domestic markets as investors bet on U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and sought refuge amid political concerns over central bank independence.
Spot gold reached a fresh high of $3,651.96 per ounce, while U.S. gold futures rose to $3,690.90. The surge follows a series of gains this year, fueled by weak U.S. economic data and expectations of imminent monetary easing. U.S. unemployment rose to 4.3 percent, reinforcing market speculation that the Fed could cut rates by 25 to 50 basis points as early as this month.
A weakening dollar and declining U.S. Treasury yields further supported the precious metal’s momentum. The 10-year Treasury yield fell to a five-month low, reducing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold. At the same time, concerns about political interference in the Federal Reserve have heightened demand for gold as a safe-haven asset.
Global banks and analysts are revising their forecasts upwards. Goldman Sachs projects gold prices could reach between $3,700 and $4,000 per ounce by mid-2026, with an upside potential of $5,000 if confidence in the Federal Reserve weakens significantly. JPMorgan has placed a more cautious forecast at around $4,500 per ounce.
Year-to-date, gold has surged about 38 percent in 2025, following a strong 27 percent rise in 2024. Central bank purchases, global economic uncertainty, and heightened geopolitical tensions have all contributed to this rally.
The rally has had notable regional impacts. In India, gold futures on the Multi Commodity Exchange hit a record ₹109,500 per 10 grams, mirroring international movements. In Ahmedabad, gold reached ₹112,000 per 10 grams and silver touched ₹126,000 per kilogram, raising concerns about weakened demand during the upcoming festive and wedding season.
In Australia, record-high prices above US$3,500 per ounce have prompted a surge in public selling of jewelry and coins, as well as renewed interest in gold prospecting. The Perth Mint reported robust institutional demand, though retail buyers appeared more cautious.
With gold at historic highs, analysts warn that volatility remains likely. Upcoming U.S. jobs and inflation data, as well as the Federal Reserve’s next policy moves, are expected to play a decisive role in determining whether the rally continues or stabilizes in the coming months.